Polls suggests different results

(Update)

We’re still 29 days from the provincial election — but support for the Liberals seems to rising. At least according to a new poll released by Forum Research Wednesday.

The poll suggests that 38-percent of Ontarians would vote Liberal. That’s a five-percent increase from just 10-days ago. A Forum poll on May 4th showed that only 35-percent of Ontarians would vote Liberal. Tim Hudak’s Conservatives have fallen behind with 33-percent support — losing five-percent since the last poll. And the NDP hold 21-percent support — slipping one-percent.

But does it really signal a big change in momentum?

It appears to be a flip flop by pollsters who had initially given the PC’s an edge in voter support. But the Forum poll now has the Liberals in the lead. It even had some eyeing the possibility of a Liberal majority but one expert we spoke with said not so fast. Let’s look at the numbers.

Initially it looked like this election was Hudak’s to win. Now, Kathleen Wynne has the edge as the poll released today has the two lead party’s flipped — with the Liberals at 38% and the PC’s at 35%. With the NDP down to 21%. It was a phone poll in which people were called at home. And there is a margin of error at 3 to 4 percent.

The site Threehundredeight.com uses a different method for predicting results. All polls taken together as an aggregate using all available public polls, not just a one off. They have this as a dead heat right now with the PC’s in a narrow lead at 36.5% and the Liberals at 35.7% and the NDP at 22.

It also gives a seat projection with the Liberals and PC’s both projecting 43 seats and the NDP at the back with 21. Site creator Eric Grenier was asked if he thinks this Liberal momentum can translate in to a majority: “Well it doesn’t seem like that is in the cards for the Liberals at this stage. This particular poll gave the Liberals just a three point lead with numbers that were almost identical to what we saw in 2011, which returned a minority government. And since we’re not seeing any sort of consensus in terms of who’s leading, what more likely is that one of them is going to be able to run a minority if things don’t change dramatically.

When asked about Hudak’s pledge to cut 100 thousand jobs, Grenier said that this recent poll is the first since that pledge and we will have to wait another week or so before we can tell if it has truly generated any momentum one way or the other.