Parties eyeing Greater Toronto Area swing ridings on election night

TORONTO — Voters across the country head to the polls in the federal election today, and as results start to roll in at night, parties will be closely watching the Greater Toronto Area.

The GTA, which includes the city itself and surrounding areas such as Peel, York and Durham regions, has an abundance of seats and could help turn the tide in what is widely seen as a two-horse race.

People in some ridings reliably vote in the same party every time, but the region also contains a lot of swing ridings, making the results anything but certain.

The Liberals have captured the bulk of seats in Toronto in most recent elections, with some seats historically held by the NDP, though not in recent years.

But the Conservatives have also had some successes there, particularly during the years Stephen Harper was prime minister. Just last year, the Tories won a byelection in the previously long-held Liberal riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The party notched another byelection win last year in the former riding of Durham, one of many affected by a redrawing of boundaries, and expects Jamil Jivani to stay on as an MP for Bowmanville-Oshawa North.

The Tories are also hoping to pick up the Toronto riding of Eglinton-Lawrence, which has been Liberal for decades except for four years under Harper. Candidate Karen Stintz is a former city councillor. She is running against Liberal candidate Vince Gasparro, who came just shy of winning the riding in the February provincial election.

As well, the Conservatives picked radio host Greg Brady as their candidate in Ajax, a GTA riding they hope will be in play. The riding has been Liberal, and while the incumbent is not running again, the Liberals also selected a well-known candidate in Toronto city councillor Jennifer McKelvie.

It remains to be seen what influence, if any, tensions between the provincial Progressive Conservatives — who won a third consecutive majority government earlier this year — and the federal Tories will have on party leader Pierre Poilievre’s chances across Ontario.

Premier Doug Ford’s campaign manager Kory Tenycke has publicly slammed Poilievre’s campaign for losing a lot of ground in the polls and failing to pivot to focus on the tariff threat from U.S. President Donald Trump. Ford himself weighed in earlier this month.

“For Kory, I’ve said right from day one, he’s tough as nails, but he’s the best campaign manager in the country, and to be very frank, if Kory was running that campaign, I don’t think Mr. Poilievre would be in the position he’s in right now,” Ford said.

“At the end of the day, the people will decide which way they want this country to move forward. But sometimes the truth hurts.”

Last week, in remarks at a public policy summit, Ford said he has worked well with the “excellent” federal Liberals. He added that he would work with a federal Conservative government as well, though he took pains to describe himself as a Progressive Conservative, emphasizing the word progressive.

One former member of Ford’s cabinet made the jump last year to join Poilievre’s team and is running in Milton East-Halton Hills South. He held the riding of Milton provincially and previous to that he represented a Brampton riding for the federal Conservatives.

Meanwhile, three former NDP members of provincial parliament decided not to run again in this year’s provincial election and are now running federally. Bhutila Karpoche is running in Taiaiako’n-Parkdale-High Park, Joel Harden is running in Ottawa Centre and Monique Taylor is running in Hamilton Mountain.

All are likely in a tough fight even though they represented those ridings provincially, as polls suggest the NDP vote has collapsed. Experts say the support has mostly gone to benefit the Liberals, who have been sitting at the top of the polls with Leader Mark Carney.

The New Democrats have traditionally been able to win seats within the city of Toronto, as well as in southwestern Ontario, Hamilton and the north.

Ontario is also to home to one of only two current Green Party seats, with Mike Morrice hoping to hold on to his Kitchener Centre riding.

Polls in the province are open from 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. EDT.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 28, 2025.

Allison Jones, The Canadian Press