ICU occupancy likely to increase due to rising COVID-19 cases: science table

UPDATED

A group of scientists advising the Ontario government on COVID-19 have released their latest pandemic projections.

The Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table says hospitalizations are currently stable, but intensive care occupancy is likely to increase.

The group says COVID-19 cases are rising in most public health units and test positivity rates are also increasing.

They say with the province’s case counts rising, the immediate future is uncertain.

The group says the impact of COVID-19 remains highly inequitable with lower income, essential workers, and visible minorities having experienced the highest risk of COVID-19-related mortality.

The science table noted unvaccinated people have a six-fold higher risk of symptomatic COVID-19 disease, an 11-fold higher risk of being in the hospital and 26-fold higher risk of being in the ICU compared to the fully vaccinated.

They recommend wearing masks properly indoors and getting fully vaccinated and say the pause on re-opening is the right decision at this time.

Capacity limits in remaining settings that require proof of vaccination – including nightclubs, strip clubs and bathhouses – will not see their capacity limits lifted on Monday as expected, and will instead have to wait until mid-December.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Health said the province will continue to monitor key public health and health care indicators as we move forward.

“Today’s modelling supports Ontario’s cautious and gradual plan for reopening, which includes the government’s recent decision to pause the lifting of capacity limits in remaining higher-risk settings to ensure the province has the required time to better understand any potential impact on hospitalizations and ICU admissions,” said Alexandra Hilkene in a statement.

“There’s no question that the months ahead will require continued vigilance, and the modelling rightly points out that some jurisdictions are struggling as they continue to face the fourth wave of COVID-19. That’s why Ontario continues to take a different approach by maintaining strong public health measures such as indoor masking and proof of vaccination requirements to access higher-risk settings,” Hilkene added.

Ontario reported 642 new cases of COVID-19 Friday and 132 people in the ICU.