New poll suggests younger voters are giving both front-runners a close look

OTTAWA — As the party leaders get set for the first debate of this election Wednesday evening, a new poll suggests they’d be smart to make a pitch for younger voters.

The polling firm Leger has released the results of a survey among voters between the ages of 18 and 34 and it suggests almost half of them could be swayed.

Just 58 per cent of those voters told Leger their vote is locked in, while 41 per cent said they could change their mind before voting day.

“Young voters, they need to feel heard, not just targeted,” said Gabrielle Blais, research director in Leger’s department of public affairs and communications.

“There is room to flip the script with the younger generation because they’re not as decided as the other age groups.”

The poll suggests 40 per cent of younger voters would cast their ballots for the Liberals, 39 per cent for the Conservatives and 10 per cent for the New Democrats. Four per cent would choose the Bloc Québécois and another four per cent would pick the Green party.

But the numbers also suggest a split along generational lines — with 47 per cent of voters under 25 supporting the Liberals and 34 per cent supporting the Conservatives.

Compare that to the 25-34 age range: the poll suggests 41 per cent of those voters are choosing the Conservatives and 36 per cent are voting Liberal.

Blais said Gen Z Canadians “vote more with their hearts,” while voters in the millennial generation report being more concerned with things like being able to buy a home. Both groups, she said, are feeling “fed up” and “looking for an economic system that doesn’t feel as rigged against them as it is right now.”

The effect of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the high cost of living have dominated the national discussion during this election, and were the dominant issues for people in this survey.

When respondents were asked to rate their top election issues, tariffs and inflation were almost tied (26 per cent to 24 per cent) with housing coming in a close second.

“The cost of living and affordability of everything is just the front-line issue for this generation,” Blais said.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Leader Mark Carney have each made campaign promises aimed at helping younger Canadians buy a home.

The Conservatives are promising to cut the GST on the sale of any home under $1.3 million, while the Liberals would cut the GST for first-time homebuyers who purchase a property for under $1 million.

Both leaders have talked about the challenges facing young people.

When he announced the election on March 23, Carney said his generation was fortunate. “You had to work hard, but you could get ahead,” he said. “That was the bargain.”

“But for the generations that have followed, they’re working just as hard or even harder than we did, but they’re struggling to pay the rent, to put groceries on the table and to save for their kids’ educations.”

Poilievre has made a similar pitch to young people.

“After the lost Liberal decade, for the first time in history, the dream of home ownership is lost for a generation — at least lost for now,” he said while announcing his GST cut on March 25.

Poilievre also spoke of the plight of “the 36-year-old couple whose biological clock is running out faster than they can afford to buy a home and have kids” and has promised that a Conservative government would bring hope.

The results don’t show a significant split along gender lines when it comes to the two main parties, contrary to what several national polls have shown among wider pools of voters.

“We feel like the young men are really behind the Conservatives, and they’re really decided on voting for them. But it’s more a small minority that is loud than rather a majority,” said Blais.

The poll suggests men in the 18 to 34 demographic are more likely than women to say their vote is locked in, however (62 per cent to 53 per cent). So are Conservative voters in the demographic: 68 per cent of them say their choice is final, compared to 57 per cent of Liberal supporters and 49 per cent of NDP voters.

In all, 60 per cent of young voters polled said they will vote for the party that best represents their values and convictions.

The poll suggests just 18 per cent say they’re voting strategically to keep one party from winning — but those strategic voters are more likely to be supporting the Liberals this time.

Only three per cent of respondents said they always vote for the same party.

Blais said the survey is meant to give younger people a real voice, rather than relying on stereotypes that suggest they aren’t engaged.

A full 64 per cent of respondents said they’re definitely planning to cast a ballot, while another 23 per cent said they probably will. Only four per cent said they have no plans to vote.

Around four-in-10 said their interest in politics peaks during elections, while another 31 per cent said they’re not interested in politics.

Blais said that misinformation and confusion are undermining younger voters’ political engagement; 16 per cent of those surveyed cited “misinformation or confusion online” as a barrier to voting. With younger generations more likely to get their information from social media, she said, politicians need to do more to reach them with credible information.

Leger surveyed 1,187 people over the first two weekends in April.

The polling industry’s professional body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 16, 2025.

Sarah Ritchie, The Canadian Press