New COVID-19 modelling shows Ontario making progress in second wave

Health officials say COVID-19 case counts in Ontario appear to be flattening slightly, but warn it’s too early to say whether the province has turned a corner.

New data released Thursday show that if current trends continue, new daily cases at the end of December could be similar to what they are now, around 1,400.

But health officials say things could quickly turn sour.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, one of the experts behind the report, says the improvements seen now are “fragile” and “precarious.”

If the province reverts back to the growth rate seen two weeks ago, we could see up to 9,000 cases per day by the end of December.

ICU occupancy continues to rise and modelling shows it will hit 200 cases next month in any scenario.

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