Most Canadians say they’ve decided how they’ll vote in the election: poll

OTTAWA — Midway through the federal election campaign, a new poll suggests most Canadians have already made up their minds.

The Leger poll, conducted for The Canadian Press, suggests that 61 per cent of respondents said they’ve made their final decision on how they’ll vote, while 37 per cent said they could change their mind.

Sixty-eight per cent of Conservative supporters said their decision was final, while 61 per cent of Liberals and just 45 per cent of NDP supporters said the same.

The poll, which was conducted online and can’t be assigned a margin of error, surveyed 1,631 people between April 4 and 6.

If the federal election were held today, 44 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Liberals, 37 per cent of respondents said they’d vote for the Conservatives and eight per cent said they would back the NDP.

The poll suggests an increasing number of Canadians think the Liberals will win the next election — and more of them are now saying Liberal Leader Mark Carney is running the best campaign.

More than half of Canadians polled (52 per cent) said they think the Liberal party will win the next election. Twenty-seven per cent said they think the Conservatives will win; just two per cent picked the NDP.

The number of people polled who said the Liberals would win has jumped six points since last week, while the number picking the Conservatives to win dropped four points.

Sixty-one per cent of respondents in Quebec, 57 per cent in British Columbia, 50 per cent in Ontario and 37 per cent in Alberta said they thought the Liberals would win.

Respondents aged 55 and older were more likely to predict a Liberal win — 62 per cent — while 50 per cent of those aged 35-54 and 41 per cent of those between the ages of 18 and 34 said the same.

Carney also saw a six-point increase in the number of people who think he’s running the best election campaign so far.

Forty-two per cent of respondents said Carney is running the best campaign, while 29 per cent chose Poilievre.

While 82 per cent of Liberal supporters said Carney was running the best campaign, only 74 per cent of Conservative supporters said the same about Poilievre. Thirty-five per cent of NDP supporters said their party’s leader, Jagmeet Singh, was running the best campaign.

Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president for central Canada, said Carney has periodically “stepped aside” from the campaign to assume prime ministerial duties, such as meeting with cabinet to discuss Canada’s reply to U.S. tariffs.

While these prime ministerial moments are not actual campaign events, they encourage voters to see Carney in “a positive light,” he said.

Enns said the dominant campaign issue remains Canada-U.S. relations and Trump.

“This, as we have seen from previous polling, is still stronger ground for Carney compared to Poilievre,” Enns said. “Poilievre has honed his U.S. trade messaging last week and included more economic growth messaging, but I still feel there is more work to do. Carney still likely appears stronger on this.”

Asked about their preferred election scenarios, just over a third of Canadians said they would like to see the Liberals win the federal election and form a majority government.

Twenty-nine per cent said they would prefer a majority government led by Poilievre.

Twelve per cent said they’d like to see a minority government led by the Liberals and five per cent said they’d like to see a minority government led by the Conservatives.

The polling industry’s professional body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 8, 2025.

Catherine Morrison, The Canadian Press