Federal leaders preparing for election debates as polls suggest a tight race

OTTAWA — As the federal party leaders prepare to face off in debates in Montreal this week, experts say they’re likely working on positive body language and polishing their French skills.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara and former pollster for the Trudeau Liberals, said the leaders probably have been taking part in “mock debates” in rented-out studios with their teams before the big show.

Those debates are probably recorded, to allow the campaign teams to analyze what worked and what didn’t in terms of communication and body language.

Arnold said Trudeau did “at least half a dozen if not more” mock leadership debates before the 2015 campaign actually started. Given his chaotic year, he said, Liberal Leader Mark Carney may not have had as much time to prepare as other candidates.

Arnold said most campaigns power down and get into debate prep the day before the event by mapping out different scenarios.

Carney’s only public event Monday was an announcement on his defence plan.

Arnold, who was part of the central campaign for Trudeau in 2015, 2019 and 2021, said leaders will have a debate book put together with key messages they want to deliver on popular topics such as tariffs. If it’s done well, he said, the book will also include details on other topics, like gun control and language laws.

“The winner of the debates is the person who connects with voters,” said Arnold. “It’s just a matter of just who connects well with voters in a different situation that voters may be used to seeing them in.”

The debates are taking place just days before Canadians can take part in advanced voting. A Leger poll, conducted for The Canadian Press last week, suggested that 44 per cent of Canadians would vote Liberal, compared to 37 per cent who would vote Conservative and eight per cent who would vote NDP.

It’s not clear how much of an impact the debates will have on voting — the Leger poll suggests that 61 per cent of Canadians have made up their minds already.

Federal leaders will take part in a French-language debate Wednesday and an English-language debate Thursday. Both debates will be two hours long and will be broadcast live from Maison de Radio-Canada in Montreal.

The debates will cover similar themes, including the cost of living and energy and climate.

The French debate will also cover immigration and foreign affairs, identity and sovereignty, and the trade war. The English debate will cover “leading in a crisis,” public safety, security and tariffs and threats to Canada.

Amanda Galbraith, a crisis communications and management expert and partner at Oyster Group, said debate preparation involves working with a team that has been focused exclusively on the debates since the beginning of the campaign.

“What they’ve been doing is analyzing what the other campaigns have been doing, preparing binders and also practising to play the role of the other leaders,” Galbraith said.

To prepare for the French debates, Galbraith said leaders likely will spend the day listening only to French TV and radio and immersing themselves in the language.

Galbraith said the risk Carney faces stems from his tendency to get “snippy” when questioned about his integrity.

She said he will have to watch that tendency in the debate because his rivals will be gunning for him and targeting his soft spots.

Arnold said presentation — how often a leader smiles, how much they look at the camera and how well they project seriousness — can make a big difference in a debate performance.

“You want to make sure you at least connect with people and come across as a likable, confident person,” he said.

Carney’s French-language skills have been under scrutiny, especially since his participation in the French leadership debate.

Arnold said Carney is likely honing his French by speaking with his team in the language and engaging with French media. He said he’s likely also learning some Québécois lingo to use Wednesday in hopes of connecting with voters.

Arnold said Carney also needs to let his personal side come out more during the debates by sharing anecdotes in a relaxed way.

Poilievre, he said, is likely working more on his demeanour than his content ahead of the events.

“Where he’s having trouble connecting right now is that tone. He sounds too much like Trump to some people, he sounds too aggressive to other people,” Arnold said.

“If Poilievre can’t change the way people are thinking coming into that debate, he’s probably not going to win the election.”

Galbraith also said Poilievre needs to soften his rough edges and work out a way to attack Carney without looking too aggressive.

Arnold said that while Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet is fighting for Quebec votes, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is “fighting for relevance.” He said Singh needs to say something that catches people’s attention during the debates to get himself back in the minds of voters.

Arnold said the debate is a chance for Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault to introduce himself to Canadians.

He said expectations of Carney are “pretty low” given that he struggled in the French language debate during the leadership race.

“In that debate, Chrystia Freeland was helping him out when he had trouble finding the right word. I don’t think Pierre Poilievre is going to give Mark Carney a hand if he’s having trouble,” he said.

Arnold said that a lot of the work that parties put into debates happens when the debates are over. That’s when campaign staffers work to win the “post-debate media coverage war” by amplifying good clips of leaders on social media, he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 15, 2025.

Catherine Morrison, The Canadian Press