COVID-19 cases rising but positivity rates appear to be flattening, modelling finds

Ontario’s COVID-19 positivity rates appear to be flattening even as cases continue to grow.

The finding comes as the province released new modelling data on Thursday.

Health officials say the virus’ reproduction number is fluctuating around one, meaning it’s at a “critical juncture” where case rates may change quickly.

The reproduction number represents the number of people that one infected person will pass on the virus to, on average. 

The new modelling data also show hospital ICU capacity will continue to rise above 200 beds for the next month, particularly if public health regulations are relaxed.

On Thursday, the province reported 829 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, including 228 in the ICU.