Carney campaigning with the highest likability score since Layton: pollster

OTTAWA — The Liberals’ current lead in the polls isn’t due only to the effect of U.S. politics on the Conservatives’ campaign message, or former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s retirement — it’s also due to Liberal Leader Mark Carney’s surprising rise in likability, says one pollster.

Abacus Data’s David Coletto said Carney’s personal popularity has risen over the course of the campaign — a rare phenomenon in Canadian elections — and he has remained largely unscathed by anti-elite criticisms that may have been successful just a year ago.

Coletto said the last federal leader to enjoy such a mid-campaign increase in public approval was the late Jack Layton during the “Orange Wave” election of 2011 that brought the NDP to Official Opposition status for the first time in its history.

“It’s pretty rare to find a political leader these days who has such a positive impression,” he said. “Justin Trudeau in 2015 had not had as high numbers at this stage.”

Coletto said that for the Conservatives to win, and for the New Democrats to make some headway, both parties must find ways to make a dent in voters’ initial impressions of Carney.

Abacus Data finds Carney has a favourable rating of 48 per cent positive, 28 negative — a net 20-point advantage.

That’s significantly better than Poilievre, whose favourable rating is 40 per cent positive and 45 per cent negative. But the polling suggests Poilievre is not deeply unpopular and is actually faring better in likability than the previous two Conservative leaders.

Coletto was quick to note that Carney’s numbers are based more on “respect” than affection.

“It’s more like a respect for who (Carney) is, and I believe there’s a hope embedded into him that he can help guide the country through this moment,” he said.

“An analogy would be like the way we feel about our physician or family doctor or a surgeon who’s about to do surgery on us. We only are going to think good thoughts about somebody who is playing such a critical role in guiding us through a really difficult period.”

Leger pollster Andrew Enns said that, so far, Carney has been polling eight to 10 points better than Poilievre on the question of who would be the best prime minister, while Carney’s negatives are about half the level of Poilievre’s.

“People are still largely getting to know Mark Carney,” he said.

The path for the Conservatives now is “narrow,” Enns said, and the party has little room to change up its tactics as Poilievre tries to reach out to the broader electorate while maintaining the support of voters who have favourable views of U.S. President Donald Trump.

“He’s struggling right now with that older voter, age 55 plus — they’re most seized by the Trump-U.S. situation,” he said.

Enns noted that the White House was a bit quieter last week, which gave the Conservatives a bit of room to get their messages out.

“If the U.S. relationship — it’s probably not gonna get better, but if it just gets a little calmer and a little more stable, that does open up a bit of … opportunity for Poilievre,” he said.

Both Leger and Abacus use online polling. The Canadian Press does not report margins of error on online polls because the polling industry’s professional body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, says they do not randomly sample the population.

With just about two weeks left in the race, opposition parties face a short window to chip away at those positive impressions of Carney.

The Conservative attacks on Carney over the carbon tax and aspects of his previous life in business appear to have fallen short of the mark.

“It’s incredibly challenging given the amount of time left to define (Carney),” said former Conservative campaign director Fred DeLorey.

DeLorey said Poilievre is taking the right approach by merging his Trump messages with his points on affordability — but it’s a difficult balance to strike without muddying the message.

He said this week’s televised debates will present an opportunity for Poilievre to show off his strengths and counter Carney in an arena where the Liberal leader is at a disadvantage due to his lack of political experience.

“Carney also makes a lot of gaffes, and it feels like a gaffe a day could keep the majority away,” he added.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford waded in with a different assessment on Monday. The Progressive Conservative leader told reporters that the federal campaign has made some poor strategic choices and if had it been run by his own campaign manager, “I don’t think Mr. Poilievre would be in the position he’s in right now.”

Pollster Joseph Angolano of Pallas Data suggested in his newsletter on Monday that the Conservative campaign should “go into full Lee Atwater mode” — a reference to a notorious dirty trickster in U.S. politics — and attack Carney personally to make people less comfortable with him.

“I don’t see the Conservatives with enough time to build a strong emotional bridge with enough Canadians over 45,” he wrote.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 14, 2025.

Kyle Duggan, The Canadian Press