The NDP’s supply and confidence deal with the Liberals in Ottawa will get heavy scrutiny when leader Jagmeet Singh meets with his caucus in Montreal next week, with the Liberals’ decision last month to force binding arbitration to end a work stoppage at the country’s major railroads potentially triggering the end of the pact.

Liberal House Leader Karina Gould insisted last week that the deal will last until its planned end point next June. However NDP labour critic Matthew Green says the NDP has been re-evaluating the deal after Labour Minister Steve MacKinnon directed the Canada Industrial Relations Board to impose binding arbitration less than 24 hours after Canadian Pacific Kansas City and Canadian National Railway locked out their workers after failing to reach a contract deal at the bargaining table.

Singh called it “a line in the sand that was crossed.”

It’s now clear the future of the agreement will be front and centre when NDP members of Parliament meet in Montreal to plan their fall strategy before the House of Commons resumes on Sept. 16.

“When it comes to our caucus retreat there’s going to be some tough conversations around the table about the future of that agreement and about the needs of Canadians in a move forward basis,” said Green in an interview with The Canadian Press.

Green said as Canada’s only labour party the NDP has a responsibility to take “bold steps” to ensure there’s support for workers and their families, and others who are “struggling in this economy.”

“Everything is on the table. And I would aggressively say everything is on the table.”

Singh and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau forged the confidence-and-supply agreement more than two years ago, with the New Democrats agreeing to keep the minority Liberal government in power until June of next year in exchange for movement on key priorities.

Many of the affordability measures the Liberals have brought in over recent years, including dental-care benefits, one-time rental supplements for low-income tenants and a temporary doubling of the GST rebate, were NDP priorities.

New Democrats have also used the deal to push forward items such as pharmacare and a ban on replacement workers during a strike or lockout at federally regulated workplaces.

The two parties also negotiated a housing accelerator fund that allocated billions of dollars to help build over 750,000 homes across Canada.

If the New Democrats pull out of the deal, it doesn’t mean it will trigger an election. The party would instead vote on Liberal legislation piece by piece.

MacKinnon declined to comment on the NDP’s plans to discuss the deal as a result of his actions in the rail lockout.

Gould’s office pointed to the comments she made last week about being “confident” the deal will last to its end.

“It’s pretty clear she doesn’t have her finger on the pulse on how angry people are,” Green said of Gould.

“I can assure you we will not be taken for granted in that way, that the Liberals can just wish upon a star that somehow simply being there is going to keep them in government.”

Most priorities in the deal have been achieved, with the exception of tabling a long-term care act to strengthen standards in care homes, and enacting certain electoral reforms.

While revisiting the deal, New Democrats will consider using it to “fight for more” from the Liberal government, said Green, specifically around supports for workers and their families.

“Given where we’re at today, there needs to be additional steps that would make that agreement worthwhile in the eyes of Canadians,” he said.

The NDP retreat in Montreal comes just days before a federal byelection scheduled for a city riding on Sept. 16. The NDP hopes to flip the Liberal-held riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun to orange. They last won the riding in 2011, though it has traditionally been a safe seat for the Liberals.

Last week Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre held a press conference calling for Singh to break the deal. He blamed him for selling out workers by signing onto a “costly coalition” that he says puts Singh and Trudeau ahead of Canadians.

National opinion polls suggest Poilievre’s stance on workers rights and the economy is resonating with Canadians. He continues to hold a substantial lead in polls ahead of Liberals and New Democrats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 3, 2024.