NDP drop in polls could trigger changes in Manitoba seat holdings, analyst says

WINNIPEG — Some urban seats in Manitoba could see tight races as voting wraps up Monday for the federal election.

Political analyst Christopher Adams from the University of Manitoba says a few months ago, polls suggested a number of Liberal-held seats in Winnipeg were set to switch to Conservative.

But with the NDP falling in opinion polls and the Liberals rising, the assumption in many areas has changed.

Adams says that also means incumbent New Democrats, such as Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre and Niki Ashton in northern Manitoba, are likely to find themselves in tight battles.

One riding many will be watching is Winnipeg South, known as a bellwether seat.

It has elected a member of the governing party in every election since 1988.

Incumbent Terry Duguid, a Liberal cabinet minister, has held the seat since 2015. He is facing former provincial cabinet minister Janice Morley-Lecomte with the Conservatives and Joanne Bjornson with the NDP.

“As I’ve often said, as Winnipeg South goes, so goes the nation,” said Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies.

Some other races will be rematches.

Leila Dance won the Elmwood-Transcona seat for the NDP in a byelection last September. Conservative Colin Reynolds, who lost by 1,100 votes, is running again. Ian MacIntyre is the Liberal candidate.

In Winnipeg West, Conservative incumbent Marty Morantz again faces Liberal Doug Eyolfson. Morantz won by less than 500 votes in 2021. Avery Selby-Lyons is running for the NDP.

Adams said low NDP polling numbers nationally could pose a threat to Ashton, who has represented the northern riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski since 2008. She is up against Rebecca Chartrand for the Liberals, who finished a close second in 2015.

“The Liberals have a fairly prominent candidate … she has a shot at winning that,” Adams said.

Also running in the riding this time is Lachlan De Nardi for the Conservatives.

One Winnipeg seat where there is guaranteed to be a new face is St. Boniface-St. Vital. Former Liberal cabinet minister Dan Vandal is not seeking re-election, and the seat has been held by both Liberals and Conservatives in recent decades.

Not running again is Conservative Larry Maguire in Brandon-Souris. The seat is, like other ridings in rural southern Manitoba, a longtime Conservative stronghold.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 28, 2025.

The Canadian Press